By Nina McCambridge
This presidential primary season is all too familiar. The results seem clear, and have seemed so for some time. Although Biden is the actual incumbent, Trump seems like a second incumbent. The leadup to the Republican primary essentially did not involve Trump. Trump had adopted a clever strategy of refusing to attend any of the debates. Just as it would be ridiculous self-sabotage for Biden to debate other Democratic candidates, by refusing to debate the other Republicans, Trump positioned himself as the legitimate and natural leader of his party.
By the time of the Iowa Caucus, those who remained to vie for second place were Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and, rather mysteriously, Asa Hutchinson, who had never polled high enough to make any of the debates. Second place winner DeSantis promptly left the race, along with Ramaswamy and Hutchinson. DeSantis and Ramaswamy both endorsed Trump; Hutchinson endorsed Haley. After that came the New Hampshire primary, in which Haley won 43.3 percent of the vote – not a measly percentage, despite the fact that everyone seemed to have given in and endorsed Trump. Next up is South Carolina, where Haley was governor from 2011 to 2017. Despite her roots, 538 has Trump polling there at 63 percent – 11 percent higher than their New Hampshire poll.
Maine and Colorado have removed Trump from their primary ballots, but the Supreme Court is expected to overturn the Colorado ruling. It could delay the decision until after the election, as Haley is probably more politically aligned with the conservative justices, but I don’t think that is likely to happen.
There is also a Democratic presidential primary between Biden and Representative Dean Phillips (D-MN), the founder of Talenti Ice Cream. You may ask: If someone is responsible for putting ice cream in all of those plastic pints when paper would have worked just as well, should they really be President of the United States? Regardless, Phillips won 20 percent in the New Hampshire primary – to me, a surprisingly high number. Phillips is absolutely not going to win, but he can waste as much of his money as he chooses. The third Democratic candidate is Marianne Williamson, an author who began her career as a spiritual leader. In New Hampshire, she won four percent of the Democratic vote.
It’s nice to pretend that we aren’t going to have another Biden versus Trump race – or maybe the alternative is worse. Haley and Phillips are both arguably more partisan than their party leaders (in terms of policy), but they both have less personal baggage and will raise fewer concerns about their age. If neither drops out by the time the Pennsylvania primary comes around, those of us eligible to vote will at least have something to consider.
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