By Jaden Singh
I don’t love the Chiefs. In fact, I take joy in most of their regular season losses, but that’s not very original these days. I’m also not a 49ers fan. But I am a Kyle Shanahan fan.
I follow the Washington Commanders and have followed them since around 2011. Maybe you’ve heard of the 2013 Washington coaching staff. It’s quite ridiculous. Matt LaFleur, now head coach in Green Bay, was the quarterbacks coach. Sean McVay, head coach of the Rams, coached tight ends. Raheem Morris, who is heading to the head coach position next season in Atlanta, coached defensive backs. Mike McDaniel, Miami, coached wide receivers. Bobby Slowik, rumored as a top head coach candidate in this year’s cycle, was “defensive assistant.” Every year some obscure analyst or trainer from that year’s staff seems to emerge from the woodwork as some sort of coaching genius. And, of course, there is Kyle Shanahan, former offensive coordinator of the Redskins and Falcons, now head coach of the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.
The NFL awards season finished up Thursday night and there were a couple of weird things about it: Brock Purdy did not win MVP, and Kyle Shanahan did not win Coach of the Year. The reason why that’s weird is because San Francisco had one of the better passing offenses of all time this year. Expected Points Added (EPA) is a statistic that compiles a number of game factors into measuring how valuable a play is for the offense. EPA will highly value a five-yard completion on fourth and three and less highly value a nine-yard checkdown on third and 18. Here is a list of every QB to lead the league in EPA per play the last five years: Brock Purdy (2023), Patrick Mahomes (2022), Aaron Rodgers (2021), Aaron Rodgers (2020), Lamar Jackson (2019). Every player here other than Purdy won MVP that year. The 49ers also had the No. 1 offense, No. 1 seed, and won eight out of nine to finish the season — all usually strong indicators that the most valuable player is on your roster taking snaps from the center. But Purdy didn’t win MVP — Lamar Jackson, quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, did. According to EPA per play, Brock Purdy throwing or running the ball was not far from three times as effective as Lamar Jackson throwing or running was. Brock had more touchdowns, took fewer sacks, had a higher quarterback rating, and threw for more yards.
Voters didn’t care about this, I don’t care about this, and you shouldn’t care about this. Because there is a better reason the 49ers’ passing offense was so efficient. Because Jimmy Garoppolo, now living out a disastrous third act in Las Vegas, was third in EPA per play last year with San Francisco and took the 49ers to the Super Bowl three years ago with much the same offensive supporting cast. Because Nick Mullens, longtime backup in San Francisco, threw for the second most yards through a quarterback’s first 16 games in NFL history. Because eight times a game George Kittle or Deebo Samuel are so mind-bogglingly open that you can write in a free five completions for 83 yards and a touchdown on Purdy’s statsheet every Sunday. Because of Kyle Shanahan, the deserving coach of the year.
To achieve and maintain a good or elite offense in the NFL takes a franchise quarterback. That’s been the logic of professional football for decades. Shanahan has broken that logic. Purdy may well be the quarterback in San Francisco for years to come, and has vastly outperformed his draft position, but he is a cog in the Shanahan system. The 49ers also have fantastic players, mostly current or former all-pros, at all other key offensive positions. I’m ignoring that a bit to give more credit to Shanahan. Shanahan is now going to his third Super Bowl as a lead coordinator or head coach, and is still looking for his first win in the title round. He’s orchestrated many of the best offenses ever in some of the most unique and scheme-breaking ways. He’s a proud relic of the 2012 Washington season with Robert Griffin III that I still remember and cherish. I really hope he gets one on the Chiefs this Sunday.
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