By Eshaan Joshi
It’s a new day in the Russian Federation. It looks the same as every single one before it since Feb. 24, 2022.
Recently, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in prison. While it is unclear if he was killed deliberately or in a roundabout way involving neglect and mistreatment, the fact of the matter is quite simple. Vladimir Putin killed his greatest political enemy and put a noose around the neck of the Russian liberal movement. More than that, he proved that the idea of a Russian opposition to his regime is at best, ineffective, and at worst, mildly better than controlled opposition.
It’s been something a lot of people don’t want to admit about the extremely dire situation in Russia. Quality of life indicators are at lows that ought to terrify their economists, with a massive drug problem plaguing much of the country, especially regions that aren’t getting government focus. It’s easy to pretend that, well, actually, there is opposition to Putin, and that opposition is capable and effective. It’s easy to hope that there is pushback, that a new leader would end the nightmare plaguing NATO, Eastern Europe, and since February 2022, Ukraine.
Alexei Navalny tried his best to make a change in Russia. We can grant him that, and grant him that the situation in the country made it nigh-impossible to actually fix or change the situation on the ground without significant help. And yet, he represents one of the worst parts of the Russian myth — that there is opposition. The sad reality is that as much as Navalny tried, what did he really do? What has the Russian liberal movement done? They’ve been extolled in the presses, called the future of Russia, the new era that will take over once Putin is removed.
They’re something, sure. Some even have a flag, a white-blue-white flag that cropped up when Russians began to oppose the war in Ukraine. But they’re more of a facade of opposition than anything. An independent Russian pollster named Levada indicates that nominal support for the war remains high at 73 percent (though the percentage of respondents offering “firm, unquestioned backing” does seem to be sliding). Most of Russia has bought into the hatred of the United States, the global decadence we represent, or whatever other threat, real or imagined, we may pose to Putin’s regime. Polls from recent years, before the Russia-Ukraine War, showed that about a fifth of Russians were favorable towards the United States, an incredibly low number. Polls also show that regularly, the Russian people would prefer the United States not be involved on the global stage.
Where is the opposition? Where is the great change we were promised?
It’s not in Navalny. Navalny, try as he might as an anti-corruption opposition leader, or whatever else he’s been called, was just another pawn in Putin’s control of his country. His followers will continue — there are plenty of people who want to change Russia, plenty who will try their best to make some sort of noise. These include people who condemn the war with Ukraine — genuine, honest-to-god democrats, and plenty of others.
They’ll make some noise, but without Navalny to rally behind, there’s little they can do. Putin has bought himself a few years of relative peace with this killing. It’s unfortunate, it’s honestly depressing more than anything, but it’s the sad reality of modern Russia.
The Russian liberal had, for so long, been the white whale of foreign policy experts — the group we kept looking for, hoping they’d manage to show up in force and change the trajectory of the biggest country on the planet.
Unfortunately, as Ahab, we’ve been dragged along. Fair winds, Navalny. At least you tried.
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