Nearly three months later, I finally have the opportunity to write about one of the least heralded NBA drafts in years. If you had real opinions about either Zaccharie Risacher or Alex Sarr before they were selected first and second overall, I am mildly impressed. And if you are that dialed in, you hopefully recognize that Reed Sheppard was the more sensible number one choice. Whatever Sheppard’s realistic ceiling may be, his floor on a draft board starts with Guard, Kentucky, which is maybe the best indicator of post-draft success we have had in the past decade.
What draft outcomes am I paying attention to? I am not very interested in the path Risacher takes to becoming the twentieth-to-tenth best forward in the league, so going by draft order the first player I find compelling is Sarr. Partially that is because Sarr had a terrible Summer League and I want him to respond with a strong rookie season. Sarr also has the potential to become one of the rare and ultra-valuable real 3&D bigs in the NBA. Given the size and versatility on defense, I don’t think it would take much more than Sarr’s shot developing to make a strong playoff rotation piece. I fear, however, his less flashy pathway to success may be ineffective in shaking his rough first impressions.
At third overall, I find Reed Sheppard very exciting. His college profile is unusual for the draft and unusual in the NBA — a small guard with low usage, quick hands on defense, instant vertical bounce, a high block rate and an incredibly deadly jumper from either the midrange or from three. His summer league play was an interesting blueprint for what may translate to the NBA, headlined by a big jump in offensive aggression that didn’t tank his efficiency (even while his three wasn’t falling!). There is a lot of promising youth in Houston, but Sheppard might already be my surest bet of that group to be making big waves five years down the line.
Zach Edey went to Memphis at nine and is poised to play immediately as a jumbo Steven Adams replacement. I don’t have a problem visualizing outcomes where Edey reproduces a meaningful portion of his college impact in the professional game; maybe he won’t ever crack thirty minutes a game, but in his minutes I’d guess his mid to low post game will be nearly as unguardable. He will never be able to guard high pick and rolls run by three-level guards – but most teams don’t have that type of player! Memphis also has the personnel to protect a weak link defensively if they need to.
At eleven, Matas Buzelis went to the Bulls with a knack for shot blocking and enticing offensive promise. At minimum, Buzelis is a big wing with mobility and skill, which is the most in-demand archetype in the modern NBA. If the shot comes along, he is a very plausible starter, and the same goes for if he exerts a stronger presence as a rim protector and positional defender. Essentially, with the baseline frame and athleticism, Buzelis has many more pathways toward a longer career than most players in this draft.
I don’t need to pay attention to the outcomes for Dalton Knecht. He is a Doug McDermott re-run that may be even less inspiring.
Historically, even perceived bad drafts wind up generating some surprise rotation players and All-Stars. Odds are that I have not mentioned them here. But there is still a month left until the 2024-25 season opener, so these are only the first of the many bad predictions I will fill the empty space with until then.
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