The 59th Super Bowl does seem to be happening, and it does seem to be a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. For all the complaining about both the Chiefs and Eagles being featured in THE marquee event in American sports, both have recently played some of their best football of the season. They are the two best teams right now. I’m very excited for this game from a football perspective.
I’ll expand on the football perspective before I get to my less-football perspective. Both sides of the ball have compelling matchups in this game. Vic Fangio has been celebrated for resurrecting an Eagles defense that by many measures was a bottom-five unit in 2023, and their final task will be to shut down the most bulletproof player in the league: playoff Patrick Mahomes. In the past three postseasons, Kansas City has averaged 26.4 points per game while playing the number two, number four, number six, number eight, number 10, number 11, number 12, number 12, and number 15 defenses by expected points added (EPA). They’ve averaged just over one turnover a game in that span.
Unsurprisingly, over the last three years, Mahomes has been the most efficient playoff quarterback. Since 2022, only two quarterbacks in any single regular season campaign have matched playoff Mahomes’ EPA per play – 2023 Brock Purdy and 2022 Mahomes, in his most recent MVP season. And unlike earlier in his career, Mahomes’ supporting cast has increasingly evolved into the type that drove Tom Brady out of New England in 2020. His best wideout, Rashee Rice, hasn’t been held out by injury since Week Four, and Travis Kelce’s regular season was a strongly diminished version of what he was capable of even two years ago. It hasn’t mattered. Facing the Bills in his sixth home AFC Championship game, Mahomes lit Buffalo up for 32 points on eight drives, even as the Chiefs’ rushing game faltered.
But the Eagles defense is great, with All-Pro level players at each position group. They were the best defense in the regular season by yards allowed, and first by net yards allowed per pass attempt. Green Bay and Washington both looked out of their depth trying to move the ball in Lincoln Financial Field. Fundamentally, Philly has all the personnel you could want to stifle a set of Kansas City skill players that don’t pop off the screen in the first place.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense are not facing a Kansas City defense with the type of name brand players Philly fields up and down its roster. They are facing a Kansas City defense that instead has a long track record of flummoxing offenses that are, on paper, more talented. Steve Spagnuolo is arguably the premiere defensive coordinator in the league. Trent McDuffie hasn’t known a season that didn’t end in a Super Bowl victory. In 2025, expecting your unstoppable running game and unguardable receivers to remain unstoppable and unguardable against the February Chiefs is just preparation for heartbreak (or, more likely, ranting about the NFL rigging its product in favor of a result their customers don’t want). I’m expecting the Eagles to struggle.
Do I personally love either of these teams? Well, Kansas City is Kansas City, and Philly fans called me maybe one too many obscenities as a visiting Washington fan last week. So, I’ll refer to that one Dark Knight Rises scene: Kansas City 27, Philadelphia 21.
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