The Tartan

By Jaden Singh

The Denver Nuggets are 46-20 and currently have the best betting odds of any team in the West to take the championship home. For that reason, and also because Nikola Jokic is incredibly fun to watch, I’ve caught almost every game the Nuggets have played in the last two months live. Here are some takeaways that hopefully have more depth than whatever the ESPN or TNT talking heads have been saying lately. I have no idea what they are saying, actually — I’ve stopped watching halftime shows and deleted X early in the semester. I just know they never really change.

I’ll start with Jokic. In some statistical respects he’s having a less impressive season than last year, although much of that is likely because he’s shooting a little worse from most spots inside the arc. Otherwise, not much with his actual game is different. He has been slightly more hesitant with any sorts of long jump shots — though to be fair, that’s been a characteristic of his game across his career, and usually a positive one. Jokic is one of the better players at picking what exactly is his most efficient option given play context, and usually shoots long midrange shots and threes at roughly the lowest proportion necessary for defenders to have to stay attached beyond the arc. Not all players are so judicious — Giannis Antetokounmpo, for example, takes the same percentage of his shots from long midrange as Jokic, despite shooting 10 percent worse there. However, his current aversion to taking threes is reaching the point where opposing centers can comfortably go under guard screens and expect pump fakes, rather than true shots, from an open perimeter Jokic.

This is a minor issue that could easily fix itself up in the postseason. Jokic has been back to shooting 40 percent from three after Jan. 1, and tends to ramp up his scoring aggression when games matter. As far as I am concerned, the best offensive player in the league is as good as he’s ever been.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has suffered some poorer shooting stretches but generally remains exactly the sort of piece Denver needs at the off-ball guard slot. Critically, Caldwell-Pope has remained aggressive shooting off the catch, and aggressive taking open midrange shots after pump-faking or coming off of a Jokic screen. Denver is occasionally wanting for additional dribble handoff partners with Jokic outside of Jamal Murray, and Caldwell-Pope is an effective option curling into a 15 to 20 foot jumper. He’s also been good for 32 minutes a game going on 59 games, and has an outstanding availability record — a key piece going into April and May basketball.

Jamal Murray, still not an All-Star, has been coming into form as the season progresses. Outside of touching up his shooting efficiency from most spots, what I’ve liked most with Murray lately has been his passing development. His decision making in any Jokic screening action is extremely refined — in a recent game against the Celtics, Murray made a live-dribble lob to Aaron Gordon off of a Jokic screen that is generally reserved for top-level passing guards. Partially, Murray benefits from the Nuggets system having been extremely stable across the last few years. He is still the near-perfect point guard to pair with Jokic, and a phenomenal big game player. If you only watched nationally televised Nuggets games, you’d wonder why he wasn’t an All-NBA selection this year.

The bench has changed, but mostly, it is still very bad. Lineups with Zeke Nnaji at center have been alright in the last few weeks but across the season are tragically poor — first percentile poor, as Cleaning the Glass measures it. Nnaji himself is at -156 on the year. In last year’s playoffs the Nuggets turned to center-less lineups with Jokic off the court, which they don’t do much in the regular season for player conservation reasons. It won’t look good if they try DeAndre Jordan or Nnaji minutes against prepared postseason opponents. 

On individual second unit players — in his second year, Peyton Watson has broken out with major strides with his offensive game. It’s still his active, flexible defense that puts him on the court, but graduating his shooting efficiency across the board has produced another solid wing option for Denver. His mid range shot in particular looks comfortable, and goes in at a reasonable rate. Watson’s three looks less comfortable and goes in less, but has improved a lot from his rookie season, and Watson is only 21! Making Watson a promising addition in Denver’s quest to surround Jokic with athletic wing defense. 

Denver is my choice, and many peoples’ choice, to make it out of the Western conference for a second consecutive season. I’m less rosy on their chances of beating Boston in a Finals series (or, Philadelphia, if Embiid comes back and looks game-ready). Denver has a two-point-centric style this year that makes them less prone to variance, but may cost them against nuclear three-point offenses like the Celtics. I know the Celtics have lost their two games against Denver this year. They shot terribly from three in both games. As much as Jaylen Brown has no left, Jayson Tatum is a choker, Al Horford is old, etc., I am strongly compelled by Boston’s five all-star quality players and historic point differential.